Lunar Motion Posts

Adjustments once again to the division power and conference strengths as well as a top four upset resulted in some shifting of the rankings for the last week of the regular season.

Rank	Team
1	Ohio State
2	Indiana
3	Texas Tech
4	Notre Dame
5	BYU
6	Oregon
7	Georgia
8	Utah
9	Texas A&M
10	UConn
11	Ole Miss
12	Arizona
13	Vanderbilt
14	Alabama
15	Miami
16	Oklahoma
17	North Texas
18	USC
19	James Madison
20	Iowa
21	Michigan
22	South Florida
23	Houston
24	Tennessee
25	Texas

Several out-of-conference games last week shifted the conference strengths around a bit which resulted in different starting ratings for the teams. That translated downstream to some shifts in the rankings this week, notably Texas Tech ranking 4th this week, down from 1st the last few weeks.

Rank	Team
1	Ohio State
2	Indiana
3	Texas A&M
4	Texas Tech
5	Notre Dame
6	Georgia
7	Ole Miss
8	Oregon
9	UConn
10	Alabama
11	Oklahoma
12	Vanderbilt
13	BYU
14	Utah
15	Tennessee
16	Arizona
17	Michigan
18	Miami
19	Texas
20	Washington
21	USC
22	North Texas
23	James Madison
24	Missouri
25	Iowa

Rankings after the November 15 games.

Rank	Team
1	Texas Tech
2	Ohio State
3	Indiana
4	Texas A&M
5	Ole Miss
6	Georgia
7	Notre Dame
8	BYU
9	Utah
10	Oregon
11	UConn
12	Oklahoma
13	Vanderbilt
14	Alabama
15	Arizona
16	Tennessee
17	USC
18	Missouri
19	Houston
20	Miami
21	Michigan
22	North Texas
23	Texas
24	Cincinnati
25	James Madison

Today we will get the second installment of the College Football Playoff committee’s rankings. Theirs will likely be wrong. That’s okay. Here is mine based on my algorithm. It is probably also wrong, but that is okay. I think it is close. This is just the math, no bias or emotion from me.

Rank	Team
1	Texas Tech
2	Ohio State
3	Indiana
4	Texas A&M
5	Ole Miss
6	Alabama
7	Georgia
8	Notre Dame
9	BYU
10	Vanderbilt
11	Utah
12	UConn
13	Oklahoma
14	Oregon
15	Texas
16	Arizona
17	USC
18	Tennessee
19	Houston
20	Cincinnati
21	Pittsburgh
22	Miami
23	Michigan
24	Missouri
25	Iowa

You make like or despise or completely not care about the College Football Playoff committee rankings. I have an interest and am curious about how “right” they get things. (There is a serious contention that they don’t care about getting it right, just about creating profitable matchups in the post-season.)

I have my own method to rank teams. I use a modified Elo ranking system which is non-discrete. The system considers strength of schedule, home field advantage, and point spreads up to 19 points (because anything beyond that is functionally meaningless). The system first ranks the FBS, FCS, Division II and Division III divisions based on cross-division games. The system then ranks the conferences, using the division rankings as the starting points, based on cross-conference games. The system then ranks the teams, using the conference rankings as the starting points, based on all games.

Disclaimer: I am a BYU fan. I have thought all season that BYU should be ranked above Miami and Boise State. You can see that my math does not agree with me. Here are the rankings based on my system.

Rank	Team
1	Oregon
2	Indiana
3	Ole Miss
4	Texas
5	Georgia
6	South Carolina
7	Notre Dame
8	Tennessee
9	Alabama
10	Florida
11	Miami
12	Ohio State
13	LSU
14	Army
15	Arizona State
16	Penn State
17	Missouri
18	Texas A&M
19	Memphis
20	Kansas State
21	BYU
22	Vanderbilt
23	Minnesota
24	Clemson
25	Iowa