Last updated on 2026-07-04
Below is the basic analysis of model accuracy through the end of the group stage. The blue bars represent the distribution of expected results and the red bar represents the actual model performance.
The model continues to slightly over-predict the match results, though the cumulative over-prediction is not statistically significant. This means that through the third round and the completion of the group stage, the FIFA rankings and my adjustments are good indicators of the chances a team has of winning the match. It is interesting to note that the second round over-prediction by itself was a statistical anomaly with the expected model performance falling below the lower 90% confidence interval of the actual performance. See the chart below where the blue line and dots with error bars represent the actual performance with 90% confidence intervals and the gray dash represents the expected model performance.
Here are the round of 32 probabilities based on rankings updated from the third round results. Scores will be updated periodically throughout the round.
| Team | FT | ET | PK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 67% | Germany | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 33% | Paraguay | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 82% | France | 3 | ||
| 18% | Sweden | 0 | ||
| 38% | South Africa | 0 | ||
| 62% | Canada | 1 | ||
| 49% | Netherlands | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| 51% | Morocco | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 55% | Portugal | 2 | ||
| 45% | Croatia | 1 | ||
| 74% | Spain | 3 | ||
| 26% | Austria | 0 | ||
| 76% | United States | 2 | ||
| 24% | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 0 | ||
| 57% | Belgium | 3 | ||
| 43% | Senegal | 2 | ||
| 62% | Brazil | 2 | ||
| 38% | Japan | 1 | ||
| 48% | Ivory Coast | 1 | ||
| 52% | Norway | 2 | ||
| 65% | Mexico | 2 | ||
| 35% | Ecuador | 0 | ||
| 78% | England | 2 | ||
| 22% | DR Congo | 1 | ||
| 88% | Argentina | 1 | 2 | |
| 12% | Cape Verde | 1 | 1 | |
| 49% | Australia | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| 51% | Egypt | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 59% | Switzerland | 2 | ||
| 41% | Algeria | 0 | ||
| 79% | Colombia | 1 | ||
| 21% | Ghana | 0 |