Last updated on 2026-06-18
The World Cup started today. Here are my probabilities of all the first round matches. Scores updated at the end of the first round.
| Home | Away | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75% | Mexico | 2 | 0 | South Africa | 25% |
| 59% | Korea | 2 | 1 | Czechia | 41% |
| 69% | Canada | 1 | 1 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 31% |
| 68% | USA | 4 | 1 | Paraguay | 32% |
| 31% | Qatar | 1 | 1 | Switzerland | 69% |
| 52% | Brazil | 1 | 1 | Morocco | 48% |
| 33% | Haiti | 0 | 1 | Scotland | 67% |
| 47% | Australia | 2 | 0 | Türkiye | 53% |
| 84% | Germany | 7 | 1 | Curaçao | 16% |
| 59% | Netherlands | 2 | 2 | Japan | 41% |
| 44% | Côte d’Ivoire | 1 | 0 | Ecuador | 56% |
| 52% | Sweden | 5 | 1 | Tunisia | 48% |
| 87% | Spain | 0 | 0 | Cabo Verde | 13% |
| 66% | Belgium | 1 | 1 | Egypt | 34% |
| 27% | Saudi Arabia | 1 | 1 | Uruguay | 73% |
| 79% | IR Iran | 2 | 2 | New Zealand | 21% |
| 67% | France | 3 | 1 | Senegal | 33% |
| 40% | Iraq | 1 | 4 | Norway | 60% |
| 78% | Argentina | 3 | 0 | Algeria | 22% |
| 69% | Austria | 3 | 1 | Jordan | 31% |
| 75% | Portugal | 1 | 1 | Congo DR | 25% |
| 61% | England | 4 | 2 | Croatia | 39% |
| 32% | Ghana | 1 | 0 | Panama | 68% |
| 27% | Uzbekistan | 1 | 3 | Colombia | 73% |