Women’s World Cup predictions and results

Whether or not you’ve been waiting all month for these, here they are.

Match Group
54% Germany 2 1 Canada 46% A
45% Nigeria 0 1 France 55% A
54% Japan 2 1 New Zealand 46% B
47% Mexico 1 1 England 53% B
53% USA 2 0 N Korea 47% C
44% Colombia 0 1 Sweden 56% C
52% Brazil 1 0 Australia 48% D
59% Norway 1 0 Eq Guinea 41% D
60% Germany 1 0 Nigeria 40% A
48% Canada 0 4 France 52% A
54% Japan 4 0 Mexico 46% B
45% New Zealand 1 2 England 55% B
59% USA 3 0 Colombia 41% C
46% N Korea 0 1 Sweden 54% C
51% Brazil 3 0 Norway 49% D
58% Australia 3 2 Eq Guinea 42% D
47% France 2 4 Germany 53% A
55% Canada 0 1 Nigeria 45% A
49% England 2 0 Japan 51% B
48% New Zealand 2 2 Mexico 52% B
49% Sweden 2 1 USA 51% C
54% N Korea 0 0 Colombia 46% C
36% Eq Guinea 0 3 Brazil 64% D
48% Australia 2 1 Norway 52% D
56% Germany 0 1 Japan 44% 1A v 2B
54% Sweden 3 1 Australia 46% 1C v 2D
51% England 1.3 1.4 France 49% 1B v 2A
51% Brazil 2.3 2.5 USA 49% 1D v 2C
47% Japan     Sweden 53% Semi
48% France     USA 52% Semi
            3rd place
            Championship

Based on these probabilities, with 28 matches played I would have expected 54.47% accuracy on the predictions. The model has actually had 69.64% accuracy. My conclusion: Well, the FIFA rankings (on which these probabilities are based) seem to represent the teams fairly well. I manipulated the FIFA rankings a bit. I increased Germany’s points by about 10% (host advantage); decreased Japan, Australia, and New Zealand’s points by about 2% (geographic separation); increased the European teams’ points by about 2% (geographic proximity); and decreased North Korea’s points by about 4% (political and geographic isolation). We can expect some exciting semifinals and although as of now Sweden statistically should come away with the Cup, expect the USA to win it all.

© 2011 John Schneider. All rights reserved.

NCAA Football Bowl Predictions

The following bowl predictions are based on John Schneider’s ranking system. Predictions are presented as probability of winning. The probability of a team winning a matchup is given to the side of the team.

The predictions are updated based on all FBS and FCS games played through December 11. The predictions also account for San Diego State, Hawaii, and SMU playing bowls games at home. (The home team wins 60% of the time.) If it weren’t for the home field advantage going to SMU, the SMU vs Army game would be as good of a matchup as the Oregon vs Auburn game.

Watch for an update on how well the predictions go.

  Matchup  
63% BYU UTEP 37%
54% Northern Illinois Fresno State 46%
52% Ohio Troy 48%
51% Southern Miss Louisville 49%
32% Utah Boise State 68%
45% Navy San Diego State 55%
32% Tulsa Hawaii 68%
46% Florida Intl. Toledo 54%
59% Air Force Georgia Tech 41%
55% West Virginia NC State 45%
62% Missouri Iowa 38%
32% East Carolina Maryland 68%
51% Illinois Baylor 49%
62% Oklahoma State Arizona 38%
41% Army SMU 59%
59% Kansas State Syracuse 41%
48% North Carolina Tennessee 52%
60% Nebraska Washington 40%
46% South Florida Clemson 54%
57% Notre Dame Miami (FL) 43%
51% Georgia UCF 49%
51% South Carolina Florida State 49%
44% Northwestern Texas Tech 56%
56% Florida Penn State 44%
57% Alabama Michigan State 43%
64% Mississippi State Michigan 36%
46% Wisconsin TCU 54%
31% Connecticut Oklahoma 69%
57% Stanford Virginia Tech 43%
52% Ohio State Arkansas 48%
39% Mid Tennessee Miami (OH) 61%
47% LSU Texas A&M 53%
58% Pittsburgh Kentucky 42%
65% Nevada Boston College 35%
51% Oregon Auburn 49%

NCAA Football Top 30

With the regular season complete, here are the weekly rankings based on John’s custom computer ranking system. Unlike the BCS computers, John’s computer accounts for the following: win/loss/tie in regulation time, final point spread, proportion of points scored, conference strength, and home field advantage. Unlike human polls, John’s computer only accounts for games played, not anticipated future results.

Rank Week 14 & 15 Week 13 Week 12 Week 11 Week 10
1 Oregon Oregon Oregon Oregon Oregon
2 Auburn Stanford Stanford Boise State TCU
3 Stanford TCU Boise State Stanford Stanford
4 Oklahoma Boise State TCU TCU Boise State
5 TCU Auburn Auburn Alabama Auburn
6 Boise State Oklahoma Alabama Auburn Alabama
7 Virginia Tech Ohio State Oklahoma State Oklahoma State Arkansas
8 Ohio State Wisconsin Ohio State Arkansas LSU
9 Wisconsin Arkansas Wisconsin LSU Oklahoma State
10 Arkansas Virginia Tech Arkansas Ohio State Nebraska
11 Alabama Alabama Oklahoma Wisconsin California
12 Oklahoma State South Carolina Virginia Tech Nebraska Ohio State
13 Texas A&M Oklahoma State LSU California Wisconsin
14 Nevada Texas A&M Missouri USC Iowa
15 Missouri Missouri Texas A&M Oklahoma Florida
16 LSU Florida State South Carolina Virginia Tech Arizona
17 Nebraska Nebraska Nebraska South Carolina Mississippi State
18 South Carolina Nevada Nevada Texas A&M Missouri
19 Florida State LSU Florida State Nevada Utah
20 Notre Dame West Virginia California Missouri USC
21 Michigan State Notre Dame Florida Iowa Nevada
22 West Virginia Michigan State Mississippi State Miami (FL) Michigan State
23 Mississippi State Mississippi State Iowa Michigan State Oklahoma
24 Hawaii Hawaii NC State Mississippi State Virginia Tech
25 Georgia Northern Illinois Georgia Hawaii Texas A&M
26 Utah Arizona Arizona Georgia Georgia
27 UCF Utah Hawaii Arizona Hawaii
28 NC State Georgia Michigan State Florida State Baylor
29 Connecticut NC State Notre Dame Florida North Carolina
30 Arizona State Arizona State Utah NC State Pittsburgh

© 2010 John Nelson Schneider. All rights reserved.

NCAA Football Top 30

Weekly rankings based on John’s custom computer ranking system. Unlike the BCS computers, John’s computer accounts for the following: win/loss/tie in regulation time, final point spread, proportion of points scored, conference strength, and home field advantage. Unlike human polls, John’s computer only accounts for games played, not anticipated future results.

Final rankings will be posted after the Army/Navy game this weekend.

Rank Week 14 Week 13 Week 12 Week 11 Week 10
1 Oregon Oregon Oregon Oregon Oregon
2 Auburn Stanford Stanford Boise State TCU
3 Stanford TCU Boise State Stanford Stanford
4 Oklahoma Boise State TCU TCU Boise State
5 TCU Auburn Auburn Alabama Auburn
6 Boise State Oklahoma Alabama Auburn Alabama
7 Virginia Tech Ohio State Oklahoma State Oklahoma State Arkansas
8 Ohio State Wisconsin Ohio State Arkansas LSU
9 Wisconsin Arkansas Wisconsin LSU Oklahoma State
10 Arkansas Virginia Tech Arkansas Ohio State Nebraska
11 Alabama Alabama Oklahoma Wisconsin California
12 Oklahoma State South Carolina Virginia Tech Nebraska Ohio State
13 Texas A&M Oklahoma State LSU California Wisconsin
14 Nevada Texas A&M Missouri USC Iowa
15 Missouri Missouri Texas A&M Oklahoma Florida
16 LSU Florida State South Carolina Virginia Tech Arizona
17 Nebraska Nebraska Nebraska South Carolina Mississippi State
18 South Carolina Nevada Nevada Texas A&M Missouri
19 Florida State LSU Florida State Nevada Utah
20 Notre Dame West Virginia California Missouri USC
21 Michigan State Notre Dame Florida Iowa Nevada
22 West Virginia Michigan State Mississippi State Miami (FL) Michigan State
23 Mississippi State Mississippi State Iowa Michigan State Oklahoma
24 Hawaii Hawaii NC State Mississippi State Virginia Tech
25 Georgia Northern Illinois Georgia Hawaii Texas A&M
26 Utah Arizona Arizona Georgia Georgia
27 UCF Utah Hawaii Arizona Hawaii
28 NC State Georgia Michigan State Florida State Baylor
29 Connecticut NC State Notre Dame Florida North Carolina
30 Arizona State Arizona State Utah NC State Pittsburgh

NCAA 2010-2011 Bowl Predictions

The following bowl predictions are based on John Schneider’s ranking system. Predictions are presented as probability of winning. The probability of a team winning a matchup is given to the side of the team.

Probabilities will be updated after the Army/Navy game this weekend.

  Matchup  
63% BYU UTEP 37%
54% Northern Illinois Fresno State 46%
52% Ohio Troy 48%
51% Southern Miss Louisville 49%
32% Utah Boise State 68%
51% Navy San Diego State 49%
43% Tulsa Hawaii 57%
46% Florida Intl. Toledo 54%
59% Air Force Georgia Tech 41%
55% West Virginia NC State 45%
62% Missouri Iowa 38%
32% East Carolina Maryland 68%
51% Illinois Baylor 49%
62% Oklahoma State Arizona 38%
54% Army SMU 46%
59% Kansas State Syracuse 41%
48% North Carolina Tennessee 52%
60% Nebraska Washington 40%
46% South Florida Clemson 54%
57% Notre Dame Miami (FL) 43%
51% Georgia UCF 49%
51% South Carolina Florida State 49%
44% Northwestern Texas Tech 56%
56% Florida Penn State 44%
57% Alabama Michigan State 43%
64% Mississippi State Michigan 36%
46% Wisconsin TCU 54%
31% Connecticut Oklahoma 69%
58% Stanford Virginia Tech 42%
52% Ohio State Arkansas 48%
39% Mid Tennessee Miami (OH) 61%
47% LSU Texas A&M 53%
58% Pittsburgh Kentucky 42%
65% Nevada Boston College 35%
51% Oregon Auburn 49%