The following bowl predictions are based on John Schneider’s ranking system. Predictions are presented as probability of winning. The probability of a team winning a matchup is given to the side of the team.
The predictions are updated based on all FBS and FCS games played through December 11. The predictions also account for San Diego State, Hawaii, and SMU playing bowls games at home. (The home team wins 60% of the time.) If it weren’t for the home field advantage going to SMU, the SMU vs Army game would be as good of a matchup as the Oregon vs Auburn game.
Watch for an update on how well the predictions go.
| Matchup | |||
| 63% | BYU | UTEP | 37% |
| 54% | Northern Illinois | Fresno State | 46% |
| 52% | Ohio | Troy | 48% |
| 51% | Southern Miss | Louisville | 49% |
| 32% | Utah | Boise State | 68% |
| 45% | Navy | San Diego State | 55% |
| 32% | Tulsa | Hawaii | 68% |
| 46% | Florida Intl. | Toledo | 54% |
| 59% | Air Force | Georgia Tech | 41% |
| 55% | West Virginia | NC State | 45% |
| 62% | Missouri | Iowa | 38% |
| 32% | East Carolina | Maryland | 68% |
| 51% | Illinois | Baylor | 49% |
| 62% | Oklahoma State | Arizona | 38% |
| 41% | Army | SMU | 59% |
| 59% | Kansas State | Syracuse | 41% |
| 48% | North Carolina | Tennessee | 52% |
| 60% | Nebraska | Washington | 40% |
| 46% | South Florida | Clemson | 54% |
| 57% | Notre Dame | Miami (FL) | 43% |
| 51% | Georgia | UCF | 49% |
| 51% | South Carolina | Florida State | 49% |
| 44% | Northwestern | Texas Tech | 56% |
| 56% | Florida | Penn State | 44% |
| 57% | Alabama | Michigan State | 43% |
| 64% | Mississippi State | Michigan | 36% |
| 46% | Wisconsin | TCU | 54% |
| 31% | Connecticut | Oklahoma | 69% |
| 57% | Stanford | Virginia Tech | 43% |
| 52% | Ohio State | Arkansas | 48% |
| 39% | Mid Tennessee | Miami (OH) | 61% |
| 47% | LSU | Texas A&M | 53% |
| 58% | Pittsburgh | Kentucky | 42% |
| 65% | Nevada | Boston College | 35% |
| 51% | Oregon | Auburn | 49% |