Assuming one knows nothing whatsoever about college basketball and fills out a bracket by picking teams at random, the expected performance follows the guess line on the chart above. Only 10% of such guesses would fall above the 90% confidence line at any stage (represented as a point on the graph). While I did better than guessing going into the Sweet Sixteen, I only matched (at best) guessing expectations for the Elite Eight and beyond. And I know a little bit about college basketball.
© 2011 by John Nelson Schneider. All rights reserved.