{"id":503,"date":"2026-07-12T20:49:51","date_gmt":"2026-07-13T04:49:51","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.lunarmotion.com\/?p=503"},"modified":"2026-07-12T20:50:04","modified_gmt":"2026-07-13T04:50:04","slug":"world-cup-model-accuracy-and-semifinal-probabilities","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.lunarmotion.com\/?p=503","title":{"rendered":"World Cup Model Accuracy and Semifinal Probabilities"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Below is the basic analysis of model accuracy through the end of the Quarterfinals. The blue bars represent the distribution of expected results, the red bar represents the actual model performance and the darker blue bars represent roughly the middle 90 percent of expected results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"405\" height=\"374\" src=\"http:\/\/www.lunarmotion.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/World-Cup-2026-6th-round-diagnostics.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-504\" srcset=\"http:\/\/www.lunarmotion.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/World-Cup-2026-6th-round-diagnostics.png 405w, http:\/\/www.lunarmotion.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/World-Cup-2026-6th-round-diagnostics-300x277.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 405px) 100vw, 405px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The model continues to over-predict the match results. The cumulative over-prediction is statistically significant with the 90-percent confidence interval between 60.3 and 75.5. This means that through the Quarterfinals, the FIFA rankings and my adjustments underestimate the chances the favored team has of winning the match. This effect is driven largely by the second round of the group stage, and all of the knockout rounds. Indeed, the three rounds of knockout play only saw three upsets (Paraguay and Switzerland on penalty kicks and Norway in regular play) where we would have expected about 10 or 11 upsets. There were no upsets in the Quarterfinals. See the chart below where the blue line and dots with error bars represent the actual performance with 90% confidence intervals and the gray dash represents the expected model performance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"406\" height=\"374\" src=\"http:\/\/www.lunarmotion.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/World-Cup-2026-6th-round-roundtrendCI.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-505\" srcset=\"http:\/\/www.lunarmotion.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/World-Cup-2026-6th-round-roundtrendCI.png 406w, http:\/\/www.lunarmotion.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/World-Cup-2026-6th-round-roundtrendCI-300x276.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 406px) 100vw, 406px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Here are the Semifinal probabilities based on rankings updated from the Quarterfinal results. Scores will be updated periodically throughout the round.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table alignleft\"><table><thead><tr><th><\/th><th>Team<\/th><th>FT<\/th><th>ET<\/th><th>PK<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>52%<\/td><td>France<\/td><td><\/td><td><\/td><td><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>48%<\/td><td>Spain<\/td><td><\/td><td><\/td><td><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><\/td><td><\/td><td><\/td><td><\/td><td><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>43%<\/td><td>England<\/td><td><\/td><td><\/td><td><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>57%<\/td><td>Argentina<\/td><td><\/td><td><\/td><td><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Below is the basic analysis of model accuracy through the end of the Quarterfinals. The blue bars represent the distribution of expected results, the red&#8230;<\/p>\n<div class=\"more-link-wrapper\"><a class=\"more-link\" href=\"http:\/\/www.lunarmotion.com\/?p=503\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">World Cup Model Accuracy and Semifinal Probabilities<\/span><\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[17],"tags":[19,18],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.lunarmotion.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/503"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.lunarmotion.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.lunarmotion.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.lunarmotion.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.lunarmotion.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=503"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/www.lunarmotion.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/503\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":506,"href":"http:\/\/www.lunarmotion.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/503\/revisions\/506"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.lunarmotion.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=503"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.lunarmotion.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=503"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.lunarmotion.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=503"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}