Women’s World Cup predictions and results

Whether or not you’ve been waiting all month for these, here they are.

Match Group
54% Germany 2 1 Canada 46% A
45% Nigeria 0 1 France 55% A
54% Japan 2 1 New Zealand 46% B
47% Mexico 1 1 England 53% B
53% USA 2 0 N Korea 47% C
44% Colombia 0 1 Sweden 56% C
52% Brazil 1 0 Australia 48% D
59% Norway 1 0 Eq Guinea 41% D
60% Germany 1 0 Nigeria 40% A
48% Canada 0 4 France 52% A
54% Japan 4 0 Mexico 46% B
45% New Zealand 1 2 England 55% B
59% USA 3 0 Colombia 41% C
46% N Korea 0 1 Sweden 54% C
51% Brazil 3 0 Norway 49% D
58% Australia 3 2 Eq Guinea 42% D
47% France 2 4 Germany 53% A
55% Canada 0 1 Nigeria 45% A
49% England 2 0 Japan 51% B
48% New Zealand 2 2 Mexico 52% B
49% Sweden 2 1 USA 51% C
54% N Korea 0 0 Colombia 46% C
36% Eq Guinea 0 3 Brazil 64% D
48% Australia 2 1 Norway 52% D
56% Germany 0 1 Japan 44% 1A v 2B
54% Sweden 3 1 Australia 46% 1C v 2D
51% England 1.3 1.4 France 49% 1B v 2A
51% Brazil 2.3 2.5 USA 49% 1D v 2C
47% Japan     Sweden 53% Semi
48% France     USA 52% Semi
            3rd place
            Championship

Based on these probabilities, with 28 matches played I would have expected 54.47% accuracy on the predictions. The model has actually had 69.64% accuracy. My conclusion: Well, the FIFA rankings (on which these probabilities are based) seem to represent the teams fairly well. I manipulated the FIFA rankings a bit. I increased Germany’s points by about 10% (host advantage); decreased Japan, Australia, and New Zealand’s points by about 2% (geographic separation); increased the European teams’ points by about 2% (geographic proximity); and decreased North Korea’s points by about 4% (political and geographic isolation). We can expect some exciting semifinals and although as of now Sweden statistically should come away with the Cup, expect the USA to win it all.

© 2011 John Schneider. All rights reserved.

How my Big Dance picks fared

Ratios in the Big Dance
Assuming one knows nothing whatsoever about college basketball and fills out a bracket by picking teams at random, the expected performance follows the guess line on the chart above. Only 10% of such guesses would fall above the 90% confidence line at any stage (represented as a point on the graph). While I did better than guessing going into the Sweet Sixteen, I only matched (at best) guessing expectations for the Elite Eight and beyond. And I know a little bit about college basketball.

© 2011 by John Nelson Schneider. All rights reserved.

NCAA Football Bowl Results

I am posting my bowl season results with only the championship game remaining tonight. Here is how the model performed by game.

Matchup
63% BYU 52 24 UTEP 37%
54% Northern Illinois 40 17 Fresno State 46%
52% Ohio 21 48 Troy 48%
51% Southern Miss 28 31 Louisville 49%
32% Utah 3 26 Boise State 68%
45% Navy 14 35 San Diego State 55%
32% Tulsa 62 35 Hawaii 68%
46% Florida Intl. 34 32 Toledo 54%
59% Air Force 14 7 Georgia Tech 41%
55% West Virginia 7 23 NC State 45%
62% Missouri 24 27 Iowa 38%
32% East Carolina 20 51 Maryland 68%
51% Illinois 38 14 Baylor 49%
62% Oklahoma State 36 10 Arizona 38%
41% Army 16 14 SMU 59%
59% Kansas State 34 36 Syracuse 41%
38% North Carolina 30 27 Tennessee 62%
60% Nebraska 7 19 Washington 40%
46% South Florida 31 26 Clemson 54%
57% Notre Dame 33 17 Miami (FL) 43%
51% Georgia 6 10 UCF 49%
51% South Carolina 17 26 Florida State 49%
44% Northwestern 38 45 Texas Tech 56%
56% Florida 37 24 Penn State 44%
57% Alabama 49 7 Michigan State 43%
64% Mississippi State 52 14 Michigan 36%
46% Wisconsin 19 21 TCU 54%
31% Connecticut 20 48 Oklahoma 69%
57% Stanford 40 12 Virginia Tech 43%
52% Ohio State 31 26 Arkansas 48%
39% Mid Tennessee 21 35 Miami (OH) 61%
47% LSU 41 24 Texas A&M 53%
58% Pittsburgh 27 10 Kentucky 42%
65% Nevada 20 13 Boston College 35%
51% Oregon Auburn 49%

The expected model accuracy was 58%. Actual model performance was 59%. If we look at the distribution of expected results, we get the following. Blue bars represent relative probabilities of the model predicted the correct results for the number of games on the x-axis. 34 games have been played. The dark line represents the expected probability from guessing each game (50%). The model is clearly a little better than guessing.
Distribution of expected results
The model was not completely uniform. It predicted better at the higher probabilities and not as well near 50%.
Expected probability vs actual win/loss
If we consider the results as the percentage of points score by the predicited winner, then the model correlates well to the result.
Expected probability vs percentage of game points scored by expected winner
So, going into the championship game, I don’t think I could do any better than a coin toss on picking the winner. I would expect the game to go right down to the last couple of minutes of the 4th quarter.
Still: GO DUCKS!
O

NCAA Football Bowl Predictions

The following bowl predictions are based on John Schneider’s ranking system. Predictions are presented as probability of winning. The probability of a team winning a matchup is given to the side of the team.

The predictions are updated based on all FBS and FCS games played through December 11. The predictions also account for San Diego State, Hawaii, and SMU playing bowls games at home. (The home team wins 60% of the time.) If it weren’t for the home field advantage going to SMU, the SMU vs Army game would be as good of a matchup as the Oregon vs Auburn game.

Watch for an update on how well the predictions go.

  Matchup  
63% BYU UTEP 37%
54% Northern Illinois Fresno State 46%
52% Ohio Troy 48%
51% Southern Miss Louisville 49%
32% Utah Boise State 68%
45% Navy San Diego State 55%
32% Tulsa Hawaii 68%
46% Florida Intl. Toledo 54%
59% Air Force Georgia Tech 41%
55% West Virginia NC State 45%
62% Missouri Iowa 38%
32% East Carolina Maryland 68%
51% Illinois Baylor 49%
62% Oklahoma State Arizona 38%
41% Army SMU 59%
59% Kansas State Syracuse 41%
48% North Carolina Tennessee 52%
60% Nebraska Washington 40%
46% South Florida Clemson 54%
57% Notre Dame Miami (FL) 43%
51% Georgia UCF 49%
51% South Carolina Florida State 49%
44% Northwestern Texas Tech 56%
56% Florida Penn State 44%
57% Alabama Michigan State 43%
64% Mississippi State Michigan 36%
46% Wisconsin TCU 54%
31% Connecticut Oklahoma 69%
57% Stanford Virginia Tech 43%
52% Ohio State Arkansas 48%
39% Mid Tennessee Miami (OH) 61%
47% LSU Texas A&M 53%
58% Pittsburgh Kentucky 42%
65% Nevada Boston College 35%
51% Oregon Auburn 49%

NCAA Football Top 30

With the regular season complete, here are the weekly rankings based on John’s custom computer ranking system. Unlike the BCS computers, John’s computer accounts for the following: win/loss/tie in regulation time, final point spread, proportion of points scored, conference strength, and home field advantage. Unlike human polls, John’s computer only accounts for games played, not anticipated future results.

Rank Week 14 & 15 Week 13 Week 12 Week 11 Week 10
1 Oregon Oregon Oregon Oregon Oregon
2 Auburn Stanford Stanford Boise State TCU
3 Stanford TCU Boise State Stanford Stanford
4 Oklahoma Boise State TCU TCU Boise State
5 TCU Auburn Auburn Alabama Auburn
6 Boise State Oklahoma Alabama Auburn Alabama
7 Virginia Tech Ohio State Oklahoma State Oklahoma State Arkansas
8 Ohio State Wisconsin Ohio State Arkansas LSU
9 Wisconsin Arkansas Wisconsin LSU Oklahoma State
10 Arkansas Virginia Tech Arkansas Ohio State Nebraska
11 Alabama Alabama Oklahoma Wisconsin California
12 Oklahoma State South Carolina Virginia Tech Nebraska Ohio State
13 Texas A&M Oklahoma State LSU California Wisconsin
14 Nevada Texas A&M Missouri USC Iowa
15 Missouri Missouri Texas A&M Oklahoma Florida
16 LSU Florida State South Carolina Virginia Tech Arizona
17 Nebraska Nebraska Nebraska South Carolina Mississippi State
18 South Carolina Nevada Nevada Texas A&M Missouri
19 Florida State LSU Florida State Nevada Utah
20 Notre Dame West Virginia California Missouri USC
21 Michigan State Notre Dame Florida Iowa Nevada
22 West Virginia Michigan State Mississippi State Miami (FL) Michigan State
23 Mississippi State Mississippi State Iowa Michigan State Oklahoma
24 Hawaii Hawaii NC State Mississippi State Virginia Tech
25 Georgia Northern Illinois Georgia Hawaii Texas A&M
26 Utah Arizona Arizona Georgia Georgia
27 UCF Utah Hawaii Arizona Hawaii
28 NC State Georgia Michigan State Florida State Baylor
29 Connecticut NC State Notre Dame Florida North Carolina
30 Arizona State Arizona State Utah NC State Pittsburgh

© 2010 John Nelson Schneider. All rights reserved.

NCAA Football Top 30

Weekly rankings based on John’s custom computer ranking system. Unlike the BCS computers, John’s computer accounts for the following: win/loss/tie in regulation time, final point spread, proportion of points scored, conference strength, and home field advantage. Unlike human polls, John’s computer only accounts for games played, not anticipated future results.

Final rankings will be posted after the Army/Navy game this weekend.

Rank Week 14 Week 13 Week 12 Week 11 Week 10
1 Oregon Oregon Oregon Oregon Oregon
2 Auburn Stanford Stanford Boise State TCU
3 Stanford TCU Boise State Stanford Stanford
4 Oklahoma Boise State TCU TCU Boise State
5 TCU Auburn Auburn Alabama Auburn
6 Boise State Oklahoma Alabama Auburn Alabama
7 Virginia Tech Ohio State Oklahoma State Oklahoma State Arkansas
8 Ohio State Wisconsin Ohio State Arkansas LSU
9 Wisconsin Arkansas Wisconsin LSU Oklahoma State
10 Arkansas Virginia Tech Arkansas Ohio State Nebraska
11 Alabama Alabama Oklahoma Wisconsin California
12 Oklahoma State South Carolina Virginia Tech Nebraska Ohio State
13 Texas A&M Oklahoma State LSU California Wisconsin
14 Nevada Texas A&M Missouri USC Iowa
15 Missouri Missouri Texas A&M Oklahoma Florida
16 LSU Florida State South Carolina Virginia Tech Arizona
17 Nebraska Nebraska Nebraska South Carolina Mississippi State
18 South Carolina Nevada Nevada Texas A&M Missouri
19 Florida State LSU Florida State Nevada Utah
20 Notre Dame West Virginia California Missouri USC
21 Michigan State Notre Dame Florida Iowa Nevada
22 West Virginia Michigan State Mississippi State Miami (FL) Michigan State
23 Mississippi State Mississippi State Iowa Michigan State Oklahoma
24 Hawaii Hawaii NC State Mississippi State Virginia Tech
25 Georgia Northern Illinois Georgia Hawaii Texas A&M
26 Utah Arizona Arizona Georgia Georgia
27 UCF Utah Hawaii Arizona Hawaii
28 NC State Georgia Michigan State Florida State Baylor
29 Connecticut NC State Notre Dame Florida North Carolina
30 Arizona State Arizona State Utah NC State Pittsburgh

NCAA 2010-2011 Bowl Predictions

The following bowl predictions are based on John Schneider’s ranking system. Predictions are presented as probability of winning. The probability of a team winning a matchup is given to the side of the team.

Probabilities will be updated after the Army/Navy game this weekend.

  Matchup  
63% BYU UTEP 37%
54% Northern Illinois Fresno State 46%
52% Ohio Troy 48%
51% Southern Miss Louisville 49%
32% Utah Boise State 68%
51% Navy San Diego State 49%
43% Tulsa Hawaii 57%
46% Florida Intl. Toledo 54%
59% Air Force Georgia Tech 41%
55% West Virginia NC State 45%
62% Missouri Iowa 38%
32% East Carolina Maryland 68%
51% Illinois Baylor 49%
62% Oklahoma State Arizona 38%
54% Army SMU 46%
59% Kansas State Syracuse 41%
48% North Carolina Tennessee 52%
60% Nebraska Washington 40%
46% South Florida Clemson 54%
57% Notre Dame Miami (FL) 43%
51% Georgia UCF 49%
51% South Carolina Florida State 49%
44% Northwestern Texas Tech 56%
56% Florida Penn State 44%
57% Alabama Michigan State 43%
64% Mississippi State Michigan 36%
46% Wisconsin TCU 54%
31% Connecticut Oklahoma 69%
58% Stanford Virginia Tech 42%
52% Ohio State Arkansas 48%
39% Mid Tennessee Miami (OH) 61%
47% LSU Texas A&M 53%
58% Pittsburgh Kentucky 42%
65% Nevada Boston College 35%
51% Oregon Auburn 49%

NCAA Football Top 30

 

Weekly rankings based on John’s custom computer ranking system. Unlike the BCS computers, John’s computer accounts for the following: win/loss/tie in regulation time, final point spread, proportion of points scored, conference strength, and home field advantage. Unlike human polls, John’s computer only accounts for games played, not anticipated future results.

Rank Week 13 Week 12 Week 11 Week 10 Week 9 Week 8
1 Oregon Oregon Oregon Oregon Oregon Oregon
2 Stanford Stanford Boise State TCU Alabama Alabama
3 TCU Boise State Stanford Stanford Auburn Missouri
4 Boise State TCU TCU Boise State Stanford Auburn
5 Auburn Auburn Alabama Auburn TCU Michigan State
6 Oklahoma Alabama Auburn Alabama Nebraska TCU
7 Ohio State Oklahoma State Oklahoma State Arkansas Boise State Boise State
8 Wisconsin Ohio State Arkansas LSU Utah Nebraska
9 Arkansas Wisconsin LSU Oklahoma State California Utah
10 Virginia Tech Arkansas Ohio State Nebraska Ohio State Stanford
11 Alabama Oklahoma Wisconsin California Missouri LSU
12 South Carolina Virginia Tech Nebraska Ohio State Arizona USC
13 Oklahoma State LSU California Wisconsin Iowa Ohio State
14 Texas A&M Missouri USC Iowa LSU South Carolina
15 Missouri Texas A&M Oklahoma Florida Oklahoma State Florida State
16 Florida State South Carolina Virginia Tech Arizona Oklahoma Arizona
17 Nebraska Nebraska South Carolina Mississippi State Hawaii Wisconsin
18 Nevada Nevada Texas A&M Missouri Wisconsin Oklahoma
19 LSU Florida State Nevada Utah Arkansas Georgia
20 West Virginia California Missouri USC South Carolina Mississippi State
21 Notre Dame Florida Iowa Nevada Baylor Arkansas
22 Michigan State Mississippi State Miami (FL) Michigan State Mississippi State California
23 Mississippi State Iowa Michigan State Oklahoma Michigan State Oklahoma State
24 Hawaii NC State Mississippi State Virginia Tech Florida State Hawaii
25 Northern Illinois Georgia Hawaii Texas A&M USC Miami (FL)
26 Arizona Arizona Georgia Georgia Virginia Tech Iowa
27 Utah Hawaii Arizona Hawaii Georgia Baylor
28 Georgia Michigan State Florida State Baylor Florida Virginia Tech
29 NC State Notre Dame Florida North Carolina Syracuse Nevada
30 Arizona State Utah NC State Pittsburgh NC State Oregon State

NCAA Football Top 30

Weekly rankings based on John’s custom computer ranking system. Unlike the BCS computers, John’s computer accounts for the following: win/loss/tie in regulation time, final point spread, proportion of points scored, conference strength, and home field advantage. Unlike human polls, John’s computer only accounts for games played, not anticipated future results.

Rank Week 12 Week 11 Week 10 Week 9 Week 8 Week 7
1 Oregon Oregon Oregon Oregon Oregon Oregon
2 Stanford Boise State Texas Christian Alabama Alabama Alabama
3 Boise State Stanford Stanford Auburn Missouri Missouri
4 Texas Christian Texas Christian Boise State Stanford Auburn Auburn
5 Auburn Alabama Auburn Texas Christian Michigan State Stanford
6 Alabama Auburn Alabama Nebraska Texas Christian Boise State
7 Oklahoma State Oklahoma State Arkansas Boise State Boise State LSU
8 Ohio State Arkansas LSU Utah Nebraska Oklahoma State
9 Wisconsin LSU Oklahoma State California Utah Texas Christian
10 Arkansas Ohio State Nebraska Ohio State Stanford Michigan State
11 Oklahoma Wisconsin California Missouri LSU Oklahoma
12 Virginia Tech Nebraska Ohio State Arizona USC Utah
13 LSU California Wisconsin Iowa Ohio State Mississippi State
14 Missouri USC Iowa LSU South Carolina Iowa
15 Texas A&M Oklahoma Florida Oklahoma State Florida State USC
16 South Carolina Virginia Tech Arizona Oklahoma Arizona Florida State
17 Nebraska South Carolina Mississippi State Hawaii Wisconsin Arizona
18 Nevada Texas A&M Missouri Wisconsin Oklahoma South Carolina
19 Florida State Nevada Utah Arkansas Georgia Nebraska
20 California Missouri USC South Carolina Mississippi State Arkansas
21 Florida Iowa Nevada Baylor Arkansas Ohio State
22 Mississippi State Miami (FL) Michigan State Mississippi State California Texas
23 Iowa Michigan State Oklahoma Michigan State Oklahoma State Wisconsin
24 NC State Mississippi State Virginia Tech Florida State Hawaii Georgia
25 Georgia Hawaii Texas A&M USC Miami (FL) Baylor
26 Arizona Georgia Georgia Virginia Tech Iowa Nevada
27 Hawaii Arizona Hawaii Georgia Baylor West Virginia
28 Michigan State Florida State Baylor Florida Virginia Tech California
29 Notre Dame Florida North Carolina Syracuse Nevada Oregon State
30 Utah NC State Pittsburgh NC State Oregon State North Carolina

NCAA Football Top 30

Weekly rankings based on John’s custom computer ranking system. Unlike the BCS computers, John’s computer accounts for the following: win/loss/tie in regulation time, final point spread, proportion of points scored, conference strength, and home field advantage.

Rank Week 11 Week 10 Week 9 Week 8 Week 7
1 Oregon Oregon Oregon Oregon Oregon
2 Boise State Texas Christian Alabama Alabama Alabama
3 Stanford Stanford Auburn Missouri Missouri
4 Texas Christian Boise State Stanford Auburn Auburn
5 Alabama Auburn Texas Christian Michigan State Stanford
6 Auburn Alabama Nebraska Texas Christian Boise State
7 Oklahoma State Arkansas Boise State Boise State LSU
8 Arkansas LSU Utah Nebraska Oklahoma State
9 LSU Oklahoma State California Utah Texas Christian
10 Ohio State Nebraska Ohio State Stanford Michigan State
11 Wisconsin California Missouri LSU Oklahoma
12 Nebraska Ohio State Arizona USC Utah
13 California Wisconsin Iowa Ohio State Mississippi State
14 USC Iowa LSU South Carolina Iowa
15 Oklahoma Florida Oklahoma State Florida State USC
16 Virginia Tech Arizona Oklahoma Arizona Florida State
17 South Carolina Mississippi State Hawaii Wisconsin Arizona
18 Texas A&M Missouri Wisconsin Oklahoma South Carolina
19 Nevada Utah Arkansas Georgia Nebraska
20 Missouri USC South Carolina Mississippi State Arkansas
21 Iowa Nevada Baylor Arkansas Ohio State
22 Miami (FL) Michigan State Mississippi State California Texas
23 Michigan State Oklahoma Michigan State Oklahoma State Wisconsin
24 Mississippi State Virginia Tech Florida State Hawaii Georgia
25 Hawaii Texas A&M USC Miami (FL) Baylor
26 Georgia Georgia Virginia Tech Iowa Nevada
27 Arizona Hawaii Georgia Baylor West Virginia
28 Florida State Baylor Florida Virginia Tech California
29 Florida North Carolina Syracuse Nevada Oregon State
30 NC State Pittsburgh NC State Oregon State North Carolina